CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CMEs (STEREO A, Lucy, Psyche, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2024-04-15T20:54:13Z
## Message ID: 20240415-AL-002
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Multiple CMEs have been detected as follows:
1: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-04-14T11:12Z.

Estimated speed: ~859 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 34 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -20/2 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001

2: C-type CME detected by STEREO A / SOHO. 

Start time of the event: 2024-04-15T06:48Z.

Estimated speed: ~724 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 36 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -10/6 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001

Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that the CMEs may affect STEREO A, Lucy (glancing blow), and Psyche (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CMEs will reach STEREO A at 2024-04-17T01:34Z, and the flank of the CMEs will reach Lucy at 2024-04-21T00:00Z, and Psyche at 2024-04-21T18:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 
  
The simulation also indicates that the CMEs may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CMEs will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2024-04-17T01:05Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 5-7 (minor to strong).
   
  
Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CMEs: 2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001, 2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240414_144900_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Psyche_timeline.gif

## Notes: 

The first CME event (2024-04-14T11:12:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.0 flare from AR 3636 (S17E44) with ID 2024-04-14T10:24:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-14T11:01Z.

The second CME event (2024-04-15T06:48:00-CME-001) is associated with C5.6 flare from AR 3636 (S17E30) with ID 2024-04-15T05:47:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2024-04-15T06:00Z.

The two CMEs in this simulation did not combine prior to impacting STEREO A and Earth, leading to a double peaked arrival in the STEREO A and Earth timelines. The second CME (2024-04-15T06:48Z) will impact STEREO A around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours) and Earth around 2024-04-17T16:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). The CMEs merge closer to each other after 1AU for impacts at Lucy and Psyche, with a slight separation remaining between the fronts. 

SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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